Last night, I attended a lecture on campu
s which I would have thought about liveblogging if I had a laptop, hosted by University of Delaware's "Distiguished Journalist in Residence,"
Ralph Begleiter. There were two speakers,
Peter Bergen, author of
Holy War, Inc., (of which I now have a signed copy of), and
Lee Hamilton, Vice-Chair of the
9-11 Commission. After opening statements by all three, it moved to a converstaional structure, and then was open to audience questions. I'd figure I'd share some of the insights.
Bergen opened by saying that al Qaeda is alive and well. His proof is that they have released, by his account, 27 tapes since 9-11, the call by Zarqawi for the assassination of Pakistani leaders in 2003, and the newst bin Laden tapes calling for attacks on Iraq coalition tragets, which may have led to the
train bombings in Madrid, Spain.
Bergen also said that Tora Bora was a "missed oppurtunity" to catch bin Laden, becuase we had intel that he was in the area, including eyewitness accounts of bin Laden. Bergen said that the United States failed to capture bin Laden in Tora Brra becuase it had become the "victims of it's own success," referring to how well the mix of Special Forces and Northern Alliance members had worked against the Taliban. " There were "more American journalists at the battle of Tora Bora than American soldiers," said Bergen citing how little troops were used in Afghanistan during the successfull campaign.
As to what Osama bin Laden is up to today, Bergen does not believe bin Laden has any life-threatening diseases, as he looks better in October 2004 than he did in January 2002. He stated reasons for bin Laden's ability to avoid capture: he has not used a cell phone or satellite phone in years, the cash reward given by the US Military for his capture is not a motivator in the Islamic world, and that al Qaeda, as an organization is secure, citing the example that only 10 people in the entire organization knew what was going to happen on Septmember 11th. He does not believe bin Laden to be in to in the boarder region between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as the only access paths are too well known by the people who inhabit this area. Judging by the tapes, bin Laden has some up-to-date news access, possibly even access to to the internet. Becuase of this, Bergen believes that like other al Qaeda opperatives, he is probably holed up in an urban area of Pakistan.
He wrapped up his opening comments with what he believes the future threat from bin Lade and al Qaeda is. He is worried about more attacks in Europe, becuase al Qaeda has at least 26 Euro-based cells, like the Hamburg cell that was an intrigal part of the 9-11 plot. He is worried about the increasing number of Middle East transplants to Europe, attacks on American financial institutions, including attacks on oil interests, and attacks on Jewish/Israeli targets, like the Egypt Hilton bombing.
After Bergen's opening comments, Lee Hamilton gave his. He outlined what he called 4"I's" in Counterterror policy, which are Identification, Intelligence, Integration and International. Hamilton named al Qaeda and it's "ideology of hate" (according to the President) as the two enemies in the War On Terror. Hamilton said that he came away from two years of investigation on the 9-11 with "respect for this man Osama bin Laden...he was able to destroy the World Trade Center for less than $500,000." He said that the United States should not underestimate Osama bin Laden, and that the United States should continue to "dismantle and destroy al Qaeda." During the converstaion/question part of the program, Bergen warned of the long-term planning characteristic of al Qaeda, that the planning for 9-11 started in 1999, and to watch for attacks "this election cycle," with his biggest concerns being biological and "dirty bomb" attacks. Bergen called for American Foreign Policy
Hamiliton stressed the need for the integration of the intelligence community, vertically from local first responders to Washington, and between agencies like the FBI and CIA. He also called for a policy that integrates American power into one policy, utilizing the military, diplomacy, local law enforcement, economic policy, border security, and homeland security.
"This is an enemy that operates in the cities of Europe, the deserts of Africa, the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the islands of Southeast Asia," Hamilton said while calling for the securing of international aviation and international intelligence. He also called for the United States to "reach out" to moderate Muslims, so as to curb the spread of al Qaeda's ideology. He stated that the War On Terror was a long-term one and called it a "generational challenge" like World War II.
During the converstaion/question part of the program, Bergen warned of the long-term planning characteristic of al Qaeda, that the planning for 9-11 started in 1999, and to watch for attacks "this election cycle," with his biggest concerns being biological and "dirty bomb" attacks. Bergen called for American Foreign Policy to take a "multifaceted Cold War apporach" and to try and resolve major conflicts in the Islamic world, like Israel-Palestine, Kashmir and Chechneya, that the attempt would help us reach out to Muslims the world over.
"Americans are safer but not safe," warned Hamilton, urging Americans to not return to a pre-9-11 mindset. Hamilton called 9-11 a "singular event in American history," stating that it would have ramifications the world over. His biggest fear is an organization such as al Qaeda getting its hands on a nuclear weapon, from say the takeover of Pakistan by a sympathetic ideological government, and then detonating the bomb in the United States. Accrording to government estimates, a nuclear weapon, were it detonated in Grand Central Station, New York, would kill 500,000 people instantly, and cause $1 trillion in damage. Not to mention all those who would die later from it, directly or indirectly.
After the lecture I was able to talk with Bergen for 15 or 20 minutes with a group of others, and I asked him how we could "win" the War On Terror. he said that 9-11 was not about America. It was about what is going on in the Middle East, and that now it is also America's problem. Winning the war means winning the war of ideas, and helping those Muslims not sympathetic to al Qaeda, as we did against the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The topic of the Iraq-al Qaeda connection came up, and Bergen said that as someone who has interviewed bin Laden in person, he never believed that there was a connection, although he supported the war on the WMD issue. He said that the al Qaeda camps in Iraq were in the south and not under Saddam's control at all, becuase when he had asked Osama about Saddam (the interview was just after the Persian Gulf War), bin Laden called him a "bad Muslim" and it did not seem that bin Laden would ever work with him.
