*I apologize in advance for the length of this post. Noting that, it is worth it to read.*Glenn Reynolds picked up a post that suggests states are becoming more politically polarized because, as he quotes (from Salon): "
Many urbane blue-staters are actually refugees from the red-state heartland, where they were once picked on as kids."
I had to write about polarization in a recent Political Science class of mine in the context of last November's election, and in doing so, realized that as far as research can tell, it is pretty much a myth that America is divided red/blue, just politicos are. In high school, I had an AP Government & Politics class my senior year (2003-2004!), and wrote my final paper on the subject of polarization. In that paper, I argued that the 2000 election had polarized America. I was wrong in my assessment, which boiled down to the idea that Americans lived in polarized communties, which I attributed to low Congressional challenges/turnovers (another phenomenon altogether, I think), as well as party loyalty:
The percentage of people who see a major difference between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party has jumped from 46 to 66 percent between 1972 and 2000. This unfaltering party loyalty has increased the number of straight party voting as well, which has split ticket voters “declined to the lowest point in 30 years during the 2000 and 2002 elections,” in a study released by University of Missouri-St. Louis political scientist David Kimball.
(A note: it was an informal paper, as there were 9 of us, and we had other papers with real citations, or I lost these to my computer when I transferred files, so I know the numbers come from somewhere and are legit, but I couldn't find them online)The problem with this assessment is that it does not take into account something which I picked up on while writing this recent paper:
In a sense, the United States are not divided, merely segregated at best, with those on the left and right moving towards the more extreme wings of either party, and the majority of Americans remain in the center. While 70 percent of people affiliate themselves with the two-major parties, the split is equal (including those who “lean”), a full 29 percent do not connect themselves with either party. (Numbers from Gallup Polls. April 18-21, 2005)
This is where I find the theory of a politically segregated America interesting. Being on a college campus 24/7, I run into people from all over (the world) on a regular basis. One of my classmates recently transferred from a college in Tennessee (it may be UT, if you're reading, Glenn), and she was constantly questioned on her liberal beliefs, while I find people double-take at my conservatism here in Delaware all the time.
There are probably hotbeds of liberalism and conservatism all over the country, and there are perhaps polarized communities (or even cities) where one view is in the far majority and the other (or others) are in the extreme minority. It may be a culture thing, or a sort-of reverse polarization effect. People are pushed from opposite views, and attracted to similar views. My classmate said even her professors were conservative (at least compared to ones at UD in the Political Science Department, though I've had fair professors...and I'm not just saying that becuase this blog's URL is in my e-mail signature).
San Francisco is somewhere I think of as liberal, and Texas as conservative, though Michael Savage broadcasts from SF and Paul Begala is from Tom DeLay's Congressional District. While this 'polar exodus' may be occuring, Middle America is moving toward the center. My own parents are technically conservative, but do not fall down the line on much more than 60% of the time, especially on issues like abortion and gun control.
This is why it is important that the Republicans and Democrats satisfy their base, but also the center, making the extremist primary system we have now (where only party diehards vote) tricky, and candidates
always drift towards center during the full campaign. This may rule out a Rudy Giuliani presidency, who right now would beat Hillary Clinton in a race (it was on
Meet the Press) but would potentially have a poor showing in the primaries. Quite the conundrum.
