Jokers to the Right.com: October 2005

Monday, October 31, 2005

Light My Fire

One of the College Democrats here wrote something that rubbed me the wrong way. So I commented, and he responded with a personal attack.

It's on!

College Dems Post

Porkbusters: Phase II


The Truth Laid Bear:
To that end, Porkbusters is shifting its focus from raising awareness of pork to calling attention to specific legislation that actually starts eliminating pork. The first bill that we are focusing on is sponsored by seven Senators who have styled themselves the "Fiscal Responsibility Team": Tom Coburn, Sam Brownback, Jim DeMint, John Ensign, Lindsey Graham, John McCain, and John Sununu.

I had the pleasure of being invited to a conference call with Senator Coburn last week. I was impressed by what appeared to me to be his sincere desire to confront the idiocy involved in our current fiscal policies, even if it meant pissing off his fellow Senators.

Last week, Coburn and six other Senators released an "offset package" aimed at identifying budget cuts to pay for hurricane relief. The key provision in the bill for our purposes is that it would elminate all "offsets" ( i.e., pork) in the highway bill --- wiping away a vast chunk of pork in a single stroke.


I support the Fiscal Watch Team Offset Package, and you should too.
Porkbusters tracking page.

Altio's Alright

Here's why:
In contrast to Miers, Alito "has more prior judicial experience than any Supreme Court nominee in 70 years," the president said.

So consistently conservative, Alito has been dubbed "Scalito" or "Scalia-lite" by some lawyers because his judicial philosophy invites comparisons to conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. But while Scalia is outspoken and is known to badger lawyers, Alito is polite, reserved and even-tempered.(emphasis added)


Why Bush couldn't have done this in the first place I don't know.

Blogs for Bush has a Confirm Alito Coalition. I'm in:

Sunday, October 30, 2005

Site Updates

I added some new blogs to the sidebar, one new blogger from UD, as well as several others including Michelle Malkin.

I also added a biography/about me page last week.

CIA: Big Loser

Glenn Reynolds thinks so, in terms of the Plame/Libby/NYT affair:
THE BIG LOSER in the Libby affair, it would seem to me, is the CIA. At least it will be if anyone pays attention.

Consider: Assuming that Valerie Plame was some sort of genuinely covert operative -- something that's not actually quite clear from the indictment -- the chain of events looks pretty damning: Wilson was sent to Africa on an investigative mission regarding nuclear weapons, but never asked to sign any sort of secrecy agreement(!). Wilson returns, reports, then publishes an oped in the New York Times (!!) about his mission. This pretty much ensures that people will start asking why he was sent, which leads to the fact that his wife arranged it. Once Wilson's oped appeared, Plame's covert status was in serious danger. Yet nobody seemed to care.

This leaves two possibilities. One is that the mission was intended to result in the New York Times oped all along, meaning that the CIA didn't care much about Plame's status, and was trying to meddle in domestic politics. This reflects very badly on the CIA.

The other possibility is that they're so clueless that they did this without any nefarious plan, because they're so inept, and so prone to cronyism and nepotism, that this is just business as usual. If so, the popular theory that the CIA couldn't find its own weenie with both hands and a flashlight would appear to have found some pretty strong support.

Either way, it seems to me that everyone involved with planning the Wilson mission should be fired. And it's obvious that the CIA, one way or another, needs a lot of work.

West Wing: Vinick-Santos



Tonight's episode features a debate on abortion, which is odd because both candidates are pro-choice in official position. Stantos seems like he is a little more pro-life than the average pro-choice Dem, and Vinick is more pro-choice, but gives a small government reason for being so. One-issue abortion voters would have a hard time in the 2006 Presidential election.

While Arnold Vinick may be based on John McCain, he isn't as caustic (to me at least). He seems like a California Giuliani as far as being more socially liberal than McCain.

I would probably vote for Vinick, even though Democrats on the West Wing appear to make a little more economic sense than those in real life. In anycase, I am looking forward to the Live Debate next Sunday.

On an interesting side-note, the Leo McGarry character quoted Ronald Reagan on tonight's show, saying "dance with the one that brung ya."

Tehran Confuses Me

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday the only solution to the Middle East conflict was democracy for Palestinians, after provoking outcry last week by calling for Israel to be "wiped off the map".

The official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying the best step would be political rather than military.

"The only logical solution to solve the Palestinian issue is to hold free elections with the participation of Palestinians inside and outside the occupied territories and a recognition of the nation's legitimacy," he said after a meeting with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
So I guess Iran wants a democratic Palestine to wipe Israel off the map? Is that what's going on here?

Saturday, October 29, 2005

Brooks: Dems Conspiracy Nuts

Thanks to Drudge, I was able to get excepts from David Brooks' column tomorrow (also, I am not paying any amount of money to read it online). One again, I think Brooks is completely correct, and he hits on what it a huge problem for the Dems and the Left right now:
Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald did not find evidence to prove that there was a "broad conspiracy to out a covert agent for political gain. He did not find evidence of wide-ranging criminal behavior. He did not even indict the media's ordained villain, Karl Rove," writes David Brooks in Sunday's NY TIMES.

"Leading Democratic politicians filled the air with grand conspiracy theories that would be at home in the John Birch Society."

"Why are these people so compulsively overheated?.. Why do they have to slather on wild, unsupported charges that do little more than make them look unhinged?

Brooks quotes from an essay written 40 years ago by Richard Hofstadter called "The Paranoid Style in American Politics."

Hofstadter argued that sometimes people who are dispossessed, who feel their country has been taken away from them and their kind, develop an angry, suspicious and conspiratorial frame of mind. It is never enough to believe their opponents have committed honest mistakes or have legitimate purposes; they insist on believing in malicious conspiracies.

"The paranoid spokesman," Hofstadter wrote, "sees the fate of conspiracy in apocalyptic terms -- he traffics in the birth and death of whole worlds, whole political orders, whole systems of human values. He is always manning the barricades of civilization." Because his opponents are so evil, the conspiracy monger is never content with anything but their total destruction."

Brooks summarizes: "So some Democrats were not content with Libby's indictment, but had to stretch, distort and exaggerate. The tragic thing is that at the exact moment when the Republican Party is staggering under the weight of its own mistakes, the Democratic Party's loudest voices are in the grip of passions that render them untrustworthy."

Friday, October 28, 2005

Book Review: How Capitalism Saved America


From Thomas DiLorenzo, author of The Real Lincoln, which calls Lincoln both a rascist and tyrant (really going against the grain on that one), comes How Capitalism Saved America: The Untold History of Our Country, from the Pilgrims to the Present. I was hoping for a survey of American economic history, but was disappointed in that respect. However, this book is not without its merits. Clocking in at 256 pages, it is a breif read on the importance of capitalism, and the attacks against it, from the era of the Pilgrims and Founding Fathers to the energy crisis.

I was never taught in school of the mercantilist nature of Hamiltonian Federalism, though I was aware of the war on the Bank. This book makes a great case for unrestricted trade and limited federal government, especially in the economy. While I am not sure we can ever go back to pre-Teddy Roosevelt levels of federal intervention, I feel it is worth it to attempt to real in governmental intervention in business, which inevitably hurts the consumer. This evident in the Microsoft "Anti-trust" case, which really had nothing to do with monopoly.

I would highly recommend this book, at least to get some exposure to the values of American capitalism, something not taught in the "touchy-feely" U.S. history taught in today's schools.

Hero/Hack: Miers Titanic Edition


Harriet Miers is my hero this week for withdrawling. She did the right thing by steeping back, and allowing for (hopefully) a better qualified person to be appointed.
Honorable mention to Stephen Colbert of the Colbert Report for giving her an excellent sendoff last night. And for not putting her picture next to Robert Bork's.



Leonardo DiCaprio is my hack for this week, for talking about global warming on Oprah. Not only does he add himself to the list of celebrities who try to manipulate political/ideological opinion (see also: Sean Penn, Tom Cruise, Matt Damon, Sean Penn, Whoopi Goldberg, Angelina Jolie, Pamela Anderson, Sean Penn, Richard Gere, Cameron Diaz, and Sean Penn), as well as nutjobs who appear on Oprah (see also: Tom Cruise). Looks like I won't be watching Catch Me If You Can anytime soon.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

The Not-So Silver Lining

With Harriet Miers withdrawing, my main question is "who will Bush appoint?" Until that is answered, I cannot get too happy at Miers stepping back.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Sometimes, I Wonder About People

So Burger King made about 10,000 masks of the creepy King mascot. They are sold out, and there is a feeding frenzy on eBay. One just went for $125!

Three Steps Back for the Arab World

The Financial Times:
Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Iran’s fundamentalist president, on Wednesday declared that Israel should be “wiped off the map” and warned Arab countries against developing economic ties with Israel in response to its withdrawal from Gaza.

His remarks, delivered at a conference in Tehran entitled “A World without Zionism”, led to diplomatic protests by the UK, France and Spain, while Shimon Peres, Israel’s deputy prime minister, said Iran should be expelled from the United Nations.

It really is stuff like this that hampers Palistinian statehood.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Who Does He Think He Is? Batman?

James Bond is not allowed to "hate guns!"

Daniel Craig does though. He may turn out to be as big a softee 007 as Moore was.

Wal-Mart Goes Green?

Wal-Mart announced this without and governmental regulation, and I think if energy prices maintain these levels we are going to see a lot more of this from other companies:
Targets include spending $500 million a year to: increase fuel efficiency in Wal-Mart’s truck fleet by 25 percent over three years and doubling it within 10 years; reduce greenhouse gases by 20 percent in seven years; reduce energy use at stores by 30 percent; and cut solid waste from U.S. stores and Sam’s Clubs by 25 percent in three years.

He said improving fuel mileage in the trucking fleet by one mile per gallon would save more than $52 million per year. The company also aims to cut energy usage at its stores by 30 percent.

Wal-Mart recently opened an experimental store in McKinney, Texas, to study environmental efforts such as heating the store with used cooking and motor oil. Scott said the savings so far were not enough to cover the cost of building the store, but that it may be economically feasible if Wal-Mart takes advantage of its size and rolls out such changes across the chain.

Scott said the plan was part of goals set after a year of talks with Wal-Mart’s employees, suppliers, critics and customers that he said showed many of the issues where the company was on the defensive could be opportunities instead.

Of course, if you read the rest of the article, you will find the MSM going out of their way to make sure groups like the Sierra Club are heard. I am am going to put on a happy face.

Monday, October 24, 2005

Bernake's The One

Not quite Neo, but Bernake seems to be a suitbale choice for possibly the most important spot in the entire world, as I have hinted at before.

This is promising:
"This is an excellent appointment that will promote stability and confidence in the market, since Bernanke is clearly a Fed insider and a familiar face that people already trust," said Steven Wood, chief economist with Insight Economics. "It would be hard to argue that monetary policy would've been any different over the last year under Bernanke than it has been under Greenspan."

Way more concerned about this than Miers.

Official Stance on Miers

In repsonse to this post, at this point, I am neutral on the Miers nomination. I am still undecided, and for one simple reason. She has not yet shown she's qualified, and she apparently is getting a do-over on her questionairre. Until she proves that she is or is not qualified, I cannot make a descision.

If she is able to clearly agrue her stance, and shows that she indeed is in line with Scalia and Thomas, I will gladly support her nomination. That remains to be seen.

Why "Plamegate" Doesn't Surprise Me

Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica.

The last several two-term presidents have had a scandal of varying degree break during their second term. If "Plamegate" is the worst, then it really isn't too bad (unless it goes to the top, but there is no idication of that as of yet). Reagan successfully navigated Iran-Contra, and we'll see if the Democrats decide to attack Bush or be productive and try to gain some seats in Congress.

Friday, October 21, 2005

Cliché Dissenting Republican - Global Warming

For people that know me, global warming has been one of my pet issues since reading Michael Crichton's State of Fear last winter. I really do feel that a large amount of BS goes into some of these climate change models. That being said, I am very pro-enviroment, but I don't need a New York tsunami to make me by a hyrbrid.

Junk Science on FoxNews has some things about this in the light of Wilma:
The first red flag, here, is the Purdue researchers’ reliance on a mathematical model of global climate — essentially the Purdue scientists’ crude guess as to how our exceedingly complex climate system works.

While scientists and engineers often can use mathematics to successfully explain how many natural and artificial systems function — where success can be determined by how well the model’s results match up to real-world data — successful climate modeling has so far proved to be too difficult to achieve. Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT, says that the models fail to correctly describe the behavior of clouds, which may cause predictions of higher temperatures to be three times too high.

In fact, no mathematical climate model has ever been validated against the historical temperature record. So why would anyone believe that climate models can predict future climate with any reasonable certainty?

Although the Purdue study claims that increasing greenhouse gas emission levels will lead to more extreme weather events, a look at the historical record seems to refute the claim.
This is why Wednesday night's South Park was just so hilarious.
Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow:
In this episode, Stan and Cartman accidentally crash a boat into the world's largest beaver dam, flooding the town of Beaverton, Colorado; people are stuck on their roofs and the media begins reporting guesses of violence in the city, and while nobody tries to help the situation, everybody tries to figure out who to blame (George W. Bush, FEMA, etc.). They then decide, based on no evidence, that it is the result of global warming, which will hit two days before the day after tomorrow...which is today!

Everybody runs from the "global warming," crowding in the South Park community center, believing there is an ice age outside that would kill them if they left.
.So good, and so true. One of the highlights for me is early on, right after Beaverton floods, reporters who are unable to get into the town report "Casualties in the hundreds of millions in this town of ten thousand, and we are reporting looting, raping and even acts of cannibalism." When questioned by the anchor, the reporter replies that "We don't know for sure, but we are reporting it."

Hero/Hack: Senate Republicans

Two Senate Republicans made the hero list this week: Tom Coburn (OK) and Norm Coleman (MN).


Senator Tom Coburn_______Senator Norm Coleman

Tom Coburn makes it for being the only Senator to try to do something about Congressional spending recently:
JB: Well, does that bother you, Senator? I mean, are you worried so much about Oklahoma projects?

TC: No. I don't ask for any projects. I ran on a platform of saying the biggest problem we face in our country is financial and economic, and cultural in Washington, that if we don't change that, I promised you I will not earmark a thing until the budget is in surplus.

JB: Wow.

TC: So I don't have any earmarks. So I don't have any...you know, there's no power over me to withhold earmarks, because I have none.
Norm Coleman makes it because the United Nations and the EU wants to steal the Internet from the United States (far more democratic than either of those two bodies):
"The Internet is likely to face a grave threat" at the summit, Coleman said in a statement on Monday. "If we fail to respond appropriately, we risk the freedom and enterprise fostered by this informational marvel and end up sacrificing access to information, privacy and protection of intellectual property we have all depended on."

If ratified, Coleman's resolution would assure the Bush administration and the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) of political support on Capitol Hill during the negotiations at the World Summit on the Information Society. Similar support has already come from both senior Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Every other Republican Senator besides Allen (VA), Burr (NC), DeMint (SC), Ensign (NV), Graham (SC), Hagel (NE), Kyl (AZ), McCain (AZ), Sessions (AL), Sununu (NH), Talent (MO) voted against the Coburn amendments, these are the hacks for this week. Russ Feingold gets an honorable hero mention for being the only Democrat to vote for the amendments.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

Miers = New Coke?



Opinion Journal:
The Miers debacle is beginning to remind us of New Coke--a product introduced in an effort to expand market share, which instead infuriated loyal customers. If Bush wants to "save his presidency," the way to do so is clear: withdraw the Miers nomination and reintroduce Court Classic.

Porkbusters Update V

Well three of the Coburn Amendments were struck down, and all of the Senators I called voted against them.

Full list.

Yet another reason to vote for George Allen in 2008.

Porkbusters Update IV

I've been quiet on this lately because I have been busy, but today I found five minutes to call the D.C. offices of both my home senators, Rick Santorum and Arlen Spector to find out if they are supporting the Coburn Amendment (pdf). Neither has an "official position" yet, and Spector's intern/staff person didn't know what it was.

I then called the offices of Joe Biden and Tom Carper, the two Democratic Senators from my adopted state of Delaware. Biden's intern/staff member had no idea what I was talking about, but Carper's was very receptive and said that she was unsure of the Senators position as of now, but that they were carefully considering it.

Glenn Reynolds has a great roundup of this.

I urge you all to call your Senators in support of this amendment.

Phone numbers:
Santorum: 202-224-6324
Spector: 202-224-4254
Biden: 202-224-5042
Carper: 202-224-2441

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

John Bolton Doesn't Drink Kool-Aid

The Washington Times:
The United States and its allies should threaten to cut the budget of the United Nations if it fails to end corruption and adopt badly needed reforms, the man who led the probe into the U.N. oil-for-food scandal said yesterday.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that he opposed a unilateral U.S. withholding of U.N. dues, but that a "de facto alliance" of nations demanding reform could cut through the world body's "culture of inaction."
The message, he said, should be: "Look, if the organization isn't ready to reform itself, that has budgetary implications."
The Iraq oil-for-food program has proven to be the biggest financial scandal in U.N. history, tarnishing the reputation of Secretary-General Kofi Annan and other top U.N. officials and fueling calls for a complete overhaul of the body's internal oversight and personnel practices.
The Bush administration opposes a House-passed bill that would require mandatory cuts in the U.S. dues payment to the United Nations if it fails to adopt more than three dozen specific reforms in the next few years.

Bush opposing spending cuts? What I surprise! I always thought Bush had drank some UN-Kool Aid. This seems like the best solution right now.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Change In Bush Immigration Policy? (Finally!)

Could Michael Chertoff be leading the charge?

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said his department aims without exception to expel all those who enter the United States illegally.

"Our goal at DHS (Homeland Security) is to completely eliminate the 'catch and release' enforcement problem, and return every single illegal entrant, no exceptions.


"It should be possible to achieve significant and measurable progress to this end in less than a year," Chertoff told a Senate hearing.

Thousands of "Mexicans who are caught entering the United States illegally are returned immediately to Mexico. But other parts of the system have nearly collapsed under the weight of numbers. The problem is especially severe for non-Mexicans apprehended at the southwest border," Chertoff explained.
Could Michael Chertoff be spearheading this effort?
"Today, a non-Mexican illegal immigrant caught trying to enter the United States across the southwest border has an 80 percent chance of being released immediately because we lack the holding facilities," he added.

"Through a comprehensive approach, we are moving to end this 'catch and release' style of border enforcement by reengineering our detention and removal process."

I'm skeptical, and will definately have to see some actual movements toward this before I take heedance to these remarks. But here's hoping.

Book Review: How America Got It Right



How America Got It Right: The U.S. March to Military and Political Supremacy by Bevin Alexander is exactly the kind of book I like to read. It is like the script to a History Channel special, though one made of this book would have to be 4 hours long or so. It is very easy to read, and for me a great refresher on some of the minutia of American history that I love so much, e.g. "54-40 or fight!" and the genius of men like Pershing, Patton and Teddy Roosevelt. A great survey of American military history, and something that would probably make a great Father's Day gift this June for History Channel loving Dads everywhere.

I enjoyed it, and I recommend a perusal. 4 1/2 stars.

Greenspan On Oil: Deal With It

US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said the world would have to learn to live with high oil prices and their negative impact on economic growth "for some time to come".

"Although the global economic expansion appears to have been on a reasonably firm path through the summer months, the recent surge in energy prices will undoubtedly be a drag from now on," Greenspan told business leaders here.

"In the United States, Japan and elsewhere, the effect on growth would have been greater had oil not declined in importance as an input to world economic activity since the 1970s," he said in a speech devoted to energy issues.

"We and the rest of the world doubtless will have to live with the geopolitical and other uncertainties of the oil markets for some time to come."

Greenspan also said the impact of high oil prices on economic growth and inflation was likely to be less severe than during the 1970s oil price spikes.

Taking into account inflation, the average price of crude oil was still below the peak of February 1981 in the wake of the Iranian Revolution, when oil hit the equivalent of 75 dollars a barrel in today's prices.

Oil is only two-thirds as important as an input into world gross domestic product now as it was three decades ago, he noted.

This meant the recent surge in prices "is likely to prove significantly less consequential to economic growth and inflation than the surge in the 1970s."

Star Trek to Reality

Like automatic doors, touchscreen computers and teleporters before it, something else from the world of Star Trek has become a reaily.

The Air Force is working on transparent aluminum, which in the Trek universe, was given to the 20th Century via a time paradox, as Scotty gave it to a company so he could build humback whale-sized aquariums. This was all in Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home, probably the most watchable movie for non-fans, and at least as good as Wrath of Khan in my book.

Basically, transparent aluminum would be able to act like glass, excpet for the fact that it is metal, and thus less prone to shattering. Very cool.

(Hat Tip: Slashdot)

Friday, October 14, 2005

Hero/Hack: Condoleeza Rice


This picture and caption describe why she is my hero this week.

In short, she stopped Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan from dodging the press!

Gateway Pundit has the full story.

Thursday, October 13, 2005

2008 Watch: Kennedy for Kerry

Ted "Jabba" Kennedy has come out in support of John Kerry for 2008. Why? I'm not sure.

Sen. Edward Kennedy said Wednesday he would back fellow Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 -- even if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton also pursues a White House bid.

"If he runs, I would support him," Kennedy told The Associated Press in an interview at his Boston office.

While Kennedy has frequently entertained the New York senator and her husband, former President Clinton, he said his loyalty is to Kerry. Early polling shows Clinton and Kerry among the favorites for their party's nomination in 2008, but neither has said for sure whether they'll run.

Kennedy called Kerry, the 2004 nominee, an "able, gifted and talented political leader."
I certainly would not call Kerry particularly talented politically, as he failed to capitalize on a weak Presidential incumbent (who then got the most votes of any President in recent history), and managed to made himself radically unpopular with Middle America (I suppose that is one of the two Americas).

I Don't Like Star Wars


Why is China going into space, other than the fact that it can? Melana Zyla Vickers answers the question.
Behind such ostensibly peaceful ambitions lie more militaristic ones, however. China's spending on defense this year will be $90 billion, according to a Department of Defense report to Congress. Thus, China is the third biggest defense spender in the world after the U.S. and Russia. What's more, China's defense spending has grown by double digits every year for the past decade and a half. Given that China doesn't face any threats in its region, it's clear the country's defense spending, too, is about asserting a position across from the United States, whether in the context of a fight over Taiwan or over something else.
Anti-Satellite Weapons: China is working on systems that could track, identify and destroy U.S. satellites. It is researching ground-based lasers that could fire at a satellite and destroy or damage it, or at least blind a satellite in low-earth orbit.
The U.S. has to pay attention to these developments for one main reason: If the U.S. were ever in a war with China, the U.S. would be heavily dependent on information it gathered from satellites, not least because the U.S. would probably not be fighting on its own turf. If the Chinese disabled U.S. satellites, the attacks could seriously undermine U.S. warfighting capabilities. Indeed, strategists in the Chinese military have written about striking U.S. dominance in space, as well as its "electromagnetic dominance," early in a conflict.
As Freddy Mercury sang, "Jaws was never my scene and I don't like Star Wars." As far as I know, he was referring to the movie and not the anti-missile program, but space weapons may come sooner than later.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

The Hunt For Red October

Boy am I glad this isn't an election year (exvept in VA and NJ). With the media slugging Karl Rove, and some conservatives trashing Harriet Miers, it would seem that the Administration and the Republican majority in Congress is in shambles, though it seems that the media turns away from Iraq just as the best news in almost a year comes:

A compromise has turned up, and Sunni support is expected to be widespread.

And no Republican Sentors have come out against Miers (yet). Why?
"Nobody wants to take a sharp stick and poke it in the eye of the president no matter what his approval rating is," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster with the firm Public Opinion Strategies. "He is too strong with Republican primary voters and three years from now he will remember anyone who votes against his nominee."
It may seem like the rats are abandoning the sinking ship, but I still think the GOP has a better shot in 2008 than the Dems (though 2006 will be very interesting). Let's hope this is all settled out by Janurary.

UPDATE (5:43): Just read Ryan Sager's column at Tech Central Station. He concludes that there is a storm brewing the GOP:

"The conservative movement is at a crossroads in America," Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), leader of the spending rebellion in the House, told a group of young conservatives on Capitol Hill late last month. "As the Republican Party did 40 years ago, today is another time for choosing whether we are committed to the ideals of limited government, fiscal discipline and traditional moral values or whether we will continue to sacrifice those principles on the altar of preserving our governing majority."

I am inclined to agree, and blocking spending when you are in the minority in Congress is difficult, but it can be accomplished. And it is probably easier to rile against spending by your opponents than by your collegues.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Haley Barbour: Profile

WaPo had an article yesterday about Gov. Barbour and Katrina, and it definately shows why he is currently my favorite politician. You need to read the whole thing, but here's a start:
"One reason Reagan liked me was that I wasn't afraid to tell jokes in front of him," the governor of Mississippi says with a mark of pride that reflects an essential part of his political personality, even during these most unfunny days in post-Katrina Mississippi. The former lobbyist and Republican National Committee chairman has long cherished the recreational facets of politics -- the jokes, the stories, the adventures. He is a throwback to a time when politicians would refer to their friends -- on the record -- as "drinking buddies."

Barbour, 57, has many "drinking buddies." And has smoked "some great cigars" with Rudy Giuliani and shared a "lotta laughs, lotta good times" with George W. Bush, or "Junior" as he used to call him. He goes back to the Young Republicans with Karl Rove, the Reagan days with Andrew Card, and is well-known among an A-list of senators, congressmen, governors and lobbyists. "Haley's got more friends than anyone I know," says lobbyist Don Fierce.

The Clinton Myth

Popular belief holds that the budget surpluses were do to a decease in spending during the Clinton Administration. This is only true if you are talking about defense spending.
Investor's Business Daily:
Newly released data from the Congressional Budget Office show that, as in other areas of his life, Clinton didn't exercise tremendous self-control when it came to domestic spending — contrary to the image now put forward that the 1990s was an era of unprecedented fiscal rectitude.
It's true that government spending in the 1990s increased on average only about 3% a year, which was well below GDP.

But this can be accounted for by the post-Cold War reduction in defense and the savings in interest associated with it. Defense expenditure dropped from 5.6% of GDP in 1989 to only 3% a decade later, while interest came down from 3.1% in 1989 to 2.5% in 1999.

Spending as a proportion of GDP in all other areas over the same period increased from 12.5% to 13.2%.

So it was defense reductions that account for the fact that spending overall dropped from more than 21% of GDP on the eve of the 1990s to well under 19% at the end of the decade.
With this kind of defense cuts seeming unlikely or impossible in the post 9-11 world, the government must manage unnecessary spending even more closely, something neither the Bush Administration or Congress has done (Does Bush even own a "veto pen"?).

Democrats who hail Clinton as a budget hawk are sorely wrong. The only anti-spending voice came from the then-rabid Republican Congress led by Newt Gingrich, which seems to have mellowed in its decade of majority power.
All in all, federal spending is growing at a rate of about 7% a year, and entitlements remain a perennial problem. Social Security payments are growing at 5% a year, and reform of the system seems stalled politically.

Medicare will grow 12% from 2005 to 2006, and Bush seems committed to following through on expanding Medicare with a pricey prescription drug benefit scheduled to take effect in the new year.

Meanwhile, Medicaid spending has gone up by nearly 50% since the year 2000.
There is no other way to reduce the deficit, which has gone worrysomely high except by cutting entitlements. Tax-happy Democrats will want to raise taxes, but lower taxes increases tax revenue because it stimulates more output. Raising taxes will increase tax revenue for two to three years, but once those are adjusted for, productivity will decrease, and the government will lose tax revenue and future tax revenue were the Bush tax cuts to remain in place.

Monday, October 10, 2005

Book Review: The Birth of Plenty


I just finished this book, and I enjoyed reading it. For economic history, this is pretty light an entertaining stuff. I'd recommned it if you like Guns, Germs and Steel. However, a precaution. Bernstein's strong suit is not history. He uses historical examples to try to illustrate his points of what allows for a strong economy (property rights, innovation, capital), but his history is either not quite accurate, or slightly misrepresented every so often. I learned more history from Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle than this book, and I would recommedning reading a few cursory texts on the Scientific Revolution and the 16/1700s before reading this.

I would recommend this book, as I enjoyed it, but definately far from five-star material. Very easy to read, but be forwarned if you want to accept his history as gospel (see Amazon reviews).

Sunday, October 09, 2005

2008 Watch: The Early Field (Revised)

Original Post
Republicans:
Sen. George Allen - Jess says that he is "Very personable, conservative but not in a creepy, religious right kind of way" and I agree wholeheartedly. Was not on previous list.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist - "The current Senate Majority leader certainly has the experience needed to be President, but does he have a chance? After all, the last person to go from the Senate Floor to the Oval Office was JFK. It certainly hindered John Kerry. His Senate position hurts him, so I don't think he will get the nomination." That is what most of what I wrote in Janurary, and his situation hasn't changed much, alothough he is less popular now, and seems to have not acquired a personality.

Rudy Giuliani - "'America's mayor,' the man who was the bright spot of 9/11. Rumors say he could be making a bid for Hillary's Senate seat, or the NY Governor's office after Pataki, but the man has the national name-recongnition that few could ever hope for." He is too socially moderate for the base, and ciritcs argue that he lacks experience for the office. I could see him as Vice President, but if he seriously wants the Presidency, he should seek the New York Governor's office.

Sen. Sam Brownback
- Too Religious Right for me. He is ardently a social conserative, and the religous right will undoubtly look to see if he endorses anyone in the primary, but I will not support him.

Sen. Rick Santorum - Represents "Big Government Conservatism" more than anyone else. Hated by the Left, and is in jeopardy of losing his reelection bid. Next November (2006) is make or break for him, though he claims it is his last election anyway.

Gov. Jeb Bush
- "Jeb really doesn't have any negatives, as far as I've found, unless you consider being the brother of the President a negative, and in a way, they are. While I think the current Florida governor could easily get the nomination in a weaker field, and could quite possibly nab it in the powerhouse field we're expecting. However, with America facing the possibility of three of the last four Presidents being a Bush, adding up to sixteen of the last twenty-four years (at the end of what would be Jeb's first term), I don't think it's viable. I think should the GOP lose in 2008, Jeb would be a great challenger to the Dem in 2012." No change.

Sen. John McCain - It will never happen. Too many people don't like him in the base for him to get nominated, and somewhat of a rogue, and still has that Senatorial drawback. Call him the anti-Edwards. He's a bigger showboat than Donald Trump. I like that he is fiscally conservative, but I just can't trust him. I am afraid of him jumping ship to a third party and drawing votes from the nominee. He is also 70 years old, which could make him a gravitas VP pick to a socially conservative nominee.

Gov. Mitt Romney - The Governor of Massachusetts, according to Tim Saler, "may be able to gain a lot of support from government reform voters as well as those who desire a more prudent fiscal policy." However, he is Mormon, and that may not sit well with many moderate voters because of the reputation that church has. On the upside, he would be sure to win Utah, and he is governor of a decidedly liberal state.

Gov. Mike Huckabee - He is from Arkansas, and a darling of the Christian coalition. With his shaky immigration and fiscal policies, could potentially be considered George W. II.

Gov. Haley Barbour - Current Governor of Mississippi, and possibly the only to handle Katrina effectively. He has credentials in the party:
In the mid-‘80’s, Governor Barbour advised President Ronald Reagan for nearly two years as Director of the White House Office of Political Affairs.

From 1993 to January 1997, Governor Barbour served two terms as Chairman of the Republican National Committee, including the 1994 elections when Republicans won GOP control of both houses of Congress for the first time in forty years and increased the number of Republican governors rose from 17 to 32.

Rep. Tom Tancredo - The rabidly conservative Congressman from Colorado is trying to make a name for himself and so are some activists. He seems to be strong on illegal immigration, and currently has a 100% rating by the American Conservative Union.

Noncontenders completely (who have been mentioned or were on the list previously):
Dick Cheney
Tom Ridge
Gov. George Pataki

The Wild Cards
Newt Gingrich - I loved his new book, and I think it is chock-full of platform building ideas for 2008. "He has declined that he wants to run, merely that he wants to influence those who are running. Doesn't sound like the Newt we know and love. Seems to want to update his "non-compassionate conservative" values for the post-9/11 era."

Condoleeza Rice
- "She has the experience, arguably more foreign policy experience than any president since John Adams, and certainly the most since Eisenhower. She's also black, and a woman. Is America, let alone the GOP, ready for a black woman President? Either one would raise the question, but both? It would be an interesting ride, and her chances rest on Bush's second term." While I think she is quite capable, she also seems to be socially moderate.

Democrats:


Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
- "Since everyone else assumes she has the experience, I will too. After defeat at thier own hands in both 2000 and 2004, the Democrats are scrambling for a leader. A face of the party. Is it Howard Dean? John Kerry? Hillary has too many negatives, Whitewater, her husband, tainted for at least the next decade by the Monica thing, and well, comedian Jeff Foxworthy puts it best: "If you can't say anything nice about a person, you must be talking about Hillary Clinton." I honestly cannot picture Hillary running for President." However, she should not be underestimated.

DNC Chair Howard Dean - He seems to be really ineffective, and I