While history will truely judge the Bush presidency, and the future of Iraq is still clouded by violence and uncertain government, one legacy of Bush that can be determined is the failure of neoconservativism.
Neoconservatives, for liberals, libertarians, and paleocons, who may throw the word around without quite grasping it, just because they all find the whole concept to be scary, are basically hawkish liberals. Bush happens to come from the Christian vein. A tenet of neoconservatism is the liberal theory of democracy, which states that free trade and democracy provide a stable basis for peace. This has been held true by history enough that neocons feel that bringing democracy to the shadows of tyranny, by force if necessary, is of the utmost importance. This is why neoconservatism came into prominence after the Cold War- liberals saw a chance to, like Woodrow Wilson, the misguided idealist of World War I, to "make the world safe for democracy."
The second event that propelled neoconservatism into the mainstream, and revealed the ideology of Dubya was 9-11 (no, it really wasn't the founding of
The Weekly Standard). When America was attacked on 9-11, the neocons, the "compassionate conservatives" showed the world they had the answer. The country was open to the idea of foreign wars, and thus the rest of Bush's presidency has been captured by this.
Neocons, being liberals, are open to social programs, and spending way to much money, especially, in the Christian-vein case, those faith-based initiatives. This is a tenet of neoconservatism I have never agreed with, though I admit
I was a neocon until December or January of 2004-5. The election of Bush in 2000, and then the rallying of support behind him in 2001 after 9-11 indicated that Bush had a mandate to follow neocon beliefs. This led to the subsequent invasion of Iraq, which I supported, and still support, because screwing up Iraq by leaving too soon would be worse than never having invaded at all.
A lot has changed since 9-11, and not all in the way I would have hoped. A spirit of unity and patriotism unheard of in recent history flared up, but soon enough petty partisanship returned. The events on 9-11 challenged Bush and the Republican Congress. The Department of Homeland Security has been slow to act, and isn't where is should be,
non-terror legislation has been inserted into USA PATRIOT, and FEMA was outperformed by Wal-Mart in New Orleans. Support for Iraq is at a low now, and unless things begin to visibly stabilize, the American people will not get behind it again.
This all indicates that the legacy of George W. Bush may turn out to be the failure of neoconservatism to gain popular support and to remain as a mainstream political view. Besides Bush and Cheney, the only other high profile neocons I see in public office right now are Sens. Bill Frist and Joe Lieberman. For better or for worse, it seems that the American people cannot stomach a years-long conflict, at least when it seems we have already "won," with the end of "combat operations." In reality, the invasion was a rousing success, but the occupation has been the failure. This combined with a debt ceiling of $9 trillion, has angered liberals and conservatives alike, though both dislike neoconservatism for different reasons. It seems that makes neoconservatism juxtaposed with libertarianism, and that may be true,
though hawkish libertarians like Glenn Reynolds support the president and Iraq.
The fall of neoconservatism has been pushed along not just by budget hawks, but by the immigration debate as well. The illegal immigration "question" has ripped this seam in the GOP coalition wide open. The 1980-2000 coalition was mostly middle-class Americans, libertarians, small business owners, and big business, as well as social conservatives. The Bush coalition was founded on neocons and the Christian Coalition, and retained most of the Reagan-Gingrich GOP. Ken Mehlman understands that the Hispanic vote is the new battleground for "
painting the map red," and this wrongly-aimed pandering does not strengthen the coaltion, but widens the fissures that already exist. Bush has floundered in his second term, with Social Security Reform, Katrina aftermath, the cartoon-ports debacle, and now immigration showing the administration at its worst. Bush is shaping up to have not a disasterous legacy by any means, but his philosophy is failing him.