So,
my predictions were mostly way off, but I am going to move forward and do some election analysis finally.
First, why the Republicans did so bad. I think that
Congressman Mike Pence and
Senator Tom Coburn have it correct. This is a direct result of the Republican Party straying away from conservative values and towards power politics. In 1994, the Republicans swept into Congress promising to rid the institution of corruption. Twelve years later, a scandal-ridden Republican Congress was swept out of power. If you can't do the job you were sent to do, time to go home. It is a shame that good Republicans, such as Rick Santorum, and my Congressman, Mike Fitzpatrick, were hurt due to the actions of DeLay, Abramoff, Foley, and Hastert.
Senator Tom Coburn, a shining beacon of light in the Washington darkness:
“The overriding theme of this election, however, is that voters are more interested in changing the culture in Washington than changing course in Washington, D.C. This election was not a rejection of conservative principles per se, but a rejection of corrupt, complacent and incompetent government.
“A recent CNN poll found that 54 percent of Americans believe government is doing too much while only 37 percent want government to do more. The results of this election reflect that attitude. Among the Republicans who lost their re-election bids a surprising number were political moderates who advocated a more activist government. Several Republican members of the appropriations committees, which have been on a spending binge, also were not re-elected. On the other hand, the two Republican senators who pulled off the most impressive victories were unapologetic conservatives, Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and John Ensign (R-NV). It is also notable that the Democrats who won or who ran competitive races sounded more like Ronald Reagan than Lyndon Johnson.
“This election does not show that voters have abandoned their belief in limited government; it shows that the Republican Party has abandoned them. In fact, these results represent the total failure of big government Republicanism."
Senator Coburn is 100% correct. The Republican Party needs to go back to its conservative base and reemerge. Some time in the minority will give them time to do so. Hastert should resign from his Speaker position, and Ken Mehlman should see his way out.
The other piece to the puzzle is libertarians. The very policies they vote on, smaller government, less spending, are the ones Republicans abandoned. They were certainly the part of the conservative coalition that held the GOP in power. If Republicans want to be a factor in Congressional politics in the near future, they need to hold the Libertarian bloc.
For example:
Did anyone else notice that the Libertarian Party in Montana (Stan Jones, who received 3%) provided far more than the margin of victory between Tester and Burns? Assuming that the LP candidate drew more from Burns than Tester, this means that the LP essentially played a kingmaker role in creating a Democratic Senate.
I am most disappointed that Ferris Wharton and Mike Ramone suffered because of the shortcomings of the national party. Ferris Wharton was the right candidate for the job, and one of the least political men I have met while being involved in politics. It is a shame that someone is able to get into office based on their name and money alone. I do not blame the campaign for the loss, I blame the current political atmosphere, and the help that Democrats got from labor unions on election day.
The Wharton team did everything they could within their means to try to win. There is no doubt about that. Even Castle's margin was significantly smaller than expected, so I don't think that the campaign team or the state office holds a large responsibility for the loss.
I am not quite sure what to expect out of the Democratic Congress, because most of it depends on how President Bush works with them. I now pray for the health of every Supreme Court Justice and the cloning of John Roberts.